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Iran-US Conflict:
Full Situation Report
Comprehensive intelligence covering the active war, regional impact, safety guidance, and emergency contacts. Updated Mar 15, 2026 Day 16.
⚠️ DAY 16 UPDATE (Mar 15): US and Israel struck multiple sites in Isfahan province in early hours, killing at least 15 people. Residential areas in Shiraz also attacked. Iran launched multiple missile barrages at central Israel in retaliation — sirens blared nationwide. 1,444+ civilians killed; 17,000+ injured; 3.2 million displaced inside Iran (UNHCR). CENTCOM: 6,000+ targets struck; 90+ Iranian vessels damaged/destroyed. Key Iranian commanders killed: Abdolrahim Mousavi (armed forces chief of staff), Aziz Nasirzadeh (defence minister), Mohammad Pakpour (IRGC C-in-C), Brig.-Gen. Abdullah Jalali Nasab (confirmed Day 16). Mojtaba Khamenei confirmed as Supreme Leader Day 9; issued first statement Day 14 (not appearing in person). US Secretary Hegseth (Day 14): "wounded and likely disfigured." State Dept announced $10M bounty on Khamenei. Netanyahu: Israel can create conditions for regime change but it is up to Iranians. UNESCO heritage sites damaged. IRGC missile launch rate fallen ~90%, drones ~80% vs Day 1 — degraded but not eliminated. Iran still possesses 10,000+ attack drones in mountain storage.
⚠️ DAY 16 UPDATE (Mar 15): Sirens blared across central Israel on Sunday as Iran launched multiple missile barrages in retaliation for Isfahan strikes. Israel running critically low on ballistic missile interceptors (Semafor, Mar 14) — Israel informed the US this week. At least 15 killed in Israel by Iranian strikes since Feb 28; 14 Israeli soldiers wounded. Lebanon: 826+ killed since Israel renewed expanded operations; an entire family including two children killed in Qantara (Day 16). Hezbollah battling Israeli military advances in southern towns — targeted soldiers at Al-Khazan hill and near Fatima Gate. Lebanon emergency services: Israeli attacks on two southern towns killed 5 including a child (Day 16). Mass evacuation orders in Lebanon could push displaced to over 1 million. Netanyahu (Day 14): said Israel can create conditions for regime change. Israel struck Basij checkpoints in Tehran, government buildings, and weapon storage sites (Day 14). Israel's Defense Minister Katz: operation "will continue without any time limit."
⚠️ DAY 16 UPDATE (Mar 15): IRGC stated it launched 10 missiles and several drones against US forces at the UAE's Al-Dhafra Air Base (Day 16). Smoke seen rising from major UAE energy installation on Mar 14. Dubai Creek Harbour tower struck by Iranian drone (Mar 14 — EPA photo confirmed). Earlier: Dubai International Airport struck by two Iranian drones (Day 12) — 4 foreign nationals wounded; operations continuing. UAE air defences have intercepted dozens of drones and missiles across the conflict. UAE Ruwais refinery — one of the world's largest petrochemical facilities — halted operations after a drone attack; Ruwais industrial city blaze (no injuries). UK MATO confirmed container ship ONE Majesty struck ~25nm NW of Ra's al-Khaymah. Iran has targeted UAE financial sector; IRGC warned it will strike "economic centres and banks" linked to US and Israeli entities. UAE said it will not join the military campaign but will defend its territory. Qatar strongly denied intentionally pausing LNG output — Iranian drone attack forced it.
⚠️ DAY 16 UPDATE (Mar 15): Qatar Airways resumed limited operations — 29 flights authorized (Day 13) following total grounding. Qatar strongly denied intentionally pausing LNG production to manipulate US energy prices; officials confirmed the suspension was forced by an Iranian drone attack. Qatar FM Al-Thani (Day 13): called for de-escalation and return to negotiations, told Al Jazeera that Iran's attacks on neighbours "benefit no one" and that keeping Hormuz open is "critical." Schools remain on remote learning. Al Udeid Air Base — largest US air base in the Middle East — remains on highest alert and is a primary Iranian target. Qatar previously arrested 300+ for sharing footage and "misleading information" about Iranian attacks (Day 10). Qatar's PM praised the unity of citizens and residents, pledging to keep daily life undisrupted.
⚠️ DAY 16 UPDATE (Mar 15): Bahrain Ministry of Interior arrested four Bahraini citizens for spying for Iran's IRGC (Day 13). Iranian missiles have targeted the US Navy's 5th Fleet HQ in Juffair multiple times. On Mar 10, a 29-year-old woman was killed and 8 people injured when a residential building in Manama was hit. An Asian worker was killed on Mar 2 when intercepted missile debris fell on a foreign vessel in Salman Industrial City. BAPCO force majeure remains in effect after refinery complex fire. US Embassy Manama remains closed. Iran continues intermittent strikes; residents urged to follow Ministry of Interior alerts at all times.
⚠️ DAY 16 UPDATE (Mar 15): Kuwait electricity grid damaged — six transmission lines went out of service after drone debris fell on infrastructure (Day 13). One drone struck a residential building, wounding two people. Iran's IRGC continues announcing missile and drone attacks targeting US bases in Kuwait. Camp Patriot (Kuwait Naval Base) and Camp Arifjan/Ali Al Salem Air Base remain primary IRGC targets. US Embassy Kuwait City closed. Kuwait's fire officers killed "while performing duties" (Kuwait Fire Force, details not disclosed). A girl died from shrapnel injuries (Mar 4). The deadliest single US fatality incident remains the Kuwait Port Shuaiba drone strike that killed 6 Army Reservists on Day 2.
⚠️ DAY 16 UPDATE (Mar 15): Saudi Defence Ministry intercepted four drones over the Riyadh metropolitan area (Day 15). Six ballistic missiles targeting Al-Kharj governorate were destroyed. Two drones intercepted in the Eastern Province. At least 2 killed and 12 injured in Saudi Arabia since Iran's retaliatory attacks began. Saudi Arabia normalized ties with Iran in 2023 but has been targeted regardless. Arab News analysts note Riyadh "has not struck Iranian targets despite having every legal right to self-defence" — but warns patience is not infinite. US Embassy Riyadh closed; all non-emergency US diplomatic personnel departed. Aramco activating East-West pipeline at maximum capacity via Red Sea as Hormuz remains closed. Saudi Arabia intercepted drones heading for Shaybah oilfield earlier in the conflict.
⚠️ DAY 16 UPDATE (Mar 15): All 6 crew members of a US Air Force refuelling aircraft were killed when it crashed in western Iraq on Mar 13 — military confirmed not caused by hostile or friendly fire; the aircraft had no ejection systems. A French chief warrant officer was killed in an IRGC attack in Erbil (several other French soldiers injured). 21 fighters of pro-Iran factions killed, plus 3 Iranian Kurdish fighters and an airport guard at Erbil airport. US Embassy Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center was struck by an Iranian drone (Day 11). Iraq PM told Rubio: Iraq should not be used as a launchpad for US-Israeli attacks. Iraq is home to both US bases and powerful Iranian-aligned PMF militias, which have the capacity to act independently. PMF militias attacked the US Harir base in Erbil in a largely symbolic strike. Iraq airspace closed.
⚠️ DAY 16 UPDATE (Mar 15): Lebanon death toll from renewed Israeli operations now 826+ killed. Israeli attacks on two southern towns killed at least 5 people including a child (Day 16); an entire family including two children killed in Qantara. Israel expanding operations in Beirut — Sidon apartment building struck (Mar 13). Hezbollah battling Israeli military advances in southern towns; targeted Israeli soldiers at Al-Khazan hill and near Fatima Gate in Kfar Kila; shelled Israeli artillery position in Dishon settlement. Mass evacuation orders could push displaced to over 1 million within days (expert estimate). Israel's Defense Minister Katz: operation "will continue without any time limit." IDF: 14 Israeli soldiers wounded since war began, including 6 in southern Lebanon. Israeli strikes continue in Dahiyeh (Beirut southern suburbs). Lebanese Armed Forces enforcing Hezbollah disarmament per Council of Ministers vote. EU (Mar 10): warned Israeli settler actions in West Bank "risk provoking further violence."
Jordan has been struck by Iranian ballistic missiles targeting US military assets. Jordan hosts Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (used by US F-15E Strike Eagles) and has been a key staging ground for US operations. Jordan's air defense systems have been active. Morocco issued a statement condemning Iranian retaliatory strikes on Arab states and affirmed solidarity with them. Jordan's government condemned the Iranian strikes as violations of Arab sovereignty while maintaining diplomatic neutrality on the US-Israel strike on Iran. House Minority Leader Jeffries in the US explicitly cited Jordan as a US ally at risk.
📅 Conflict Timeline: Key Events Leading to War
US and Israel struck multiple sites across Isfahan province in early hours of Mar 15, killing at least 15 people (Al Jazeera). Residential areas in Shiraz were also hit. Iran launched multiple barrages of missiles at central Israel in retaliation — sirens blared nationwide. The IRGC launched 10 missiles and several drones at UAE Al-Dhafra Air Base. Dubai Creek Harbour tower struck by Iranian drone Mar 14 (EPA confirmed). Smoke from major UAE energy installation seen on Mar 14. Lebanon: Israeli strikes killed 5 in two southern towns including a child; an entire family including two children killed in Qantara. Hezbollah battled Israeli military advances at Al-Khazan hill and near Fatima Gate. Saudi Arabia intercepted 4 drones over Riyadh metro area; 2 killed, 12 injured in Saudi Arabia total. IRGC ballistic missile rate now ~90% lower, drones ~80% lower than Day 1 (CENTCOM/ACLED) — Israel confirmed critically low on interceptors (Semafor). Iran confirmed death of Brig.-Gen. Abdullah Jalali Nasab. Total dead: Iran 1,444+; Lebanon 826+; Israel 15+; 13 US soldiers; 19 Gulf states (Al Jazeera).
Mojtaba Khamenei issued first statement as Supreme Leader via state TV on Mar 13 — did not appear in person. He warned attacks continue unless all US bases in the region are closed. Hegseth: Khamenei is "wounded and likely disfigured." State Dept announced $10M bounty on Khamenei and top Iranian officials; informants eligible for relocation. All 6 US aircrew killed when Air Force refuelling aircraft crashed in western Iraq — not caused by hostile fire; aircraft lacked ejection systems. Explosions near Tehran's Al Quds Day rally — one woman killed (Iranian state media). Israel struck Basij checkpoints in Tehran and government/weapons storage buildings. US deploying 2,200-strong Marine Expeditionary Unit from Okinawa. 250+ US organisations signed letter to Congress demanding war funding halt — $11.3bn spent in first 6 days. Senate committee announced first open oversight hearing of the war.
UN Security Council passed 13-0 resolution (Russia and China abstaining) demanding Iran halt Gulf attacks, warn against Hormuz closure, reaffirm freedom of navigation. Fighting widened hours later. Pezeshkian set 3 peace conditions: recognition of rights, reparations, international guarantees. IRGC attacked Gulf states in direct defiance. Arab News: "IRGC has no intention of honoring presidential orders." Saudi FM: "The Iranians have not applied this on the ground, before or after the president's speech." CENTCOM: 6,000+ targets struck in Iran; 90+ Iranian vessels destroyed. UNHCR: 3.2 million displaced inside Iran. Bahrain arrested 4 citizens for IRGC espionage. Qatar Airways resumed 29 flights after total grounding. Senior adviser Safavi called Trump "Satan himself" on state TV. B-2 bombers used 30,000-pound bunker-busters on Talaghan-2 nuclear facility at Parchin. Kuwait: 6 electricity lines failed from drone debris. Oman: fuel tanks at Salalah port hit by drone.
Iran's IRGC launched Wave 37, describing it as their "most intense and heaviest operation" since the war began — a joint operation with Hezbollah running 5 continuous hours and striking 50+ targets across Israel using super-heavy Khoramshahr ballistic missiles (Tel Aviv, Haifa, West Jerusalem, Erbil, Manama). Israel simultaneously launched a "massive wave" of strikes on residential districts of central Tehran overnight; Red Crescent confirmed a residential building hit and rescue teams were digging. 8+ Tehran districts struck; Mehrabad Airport targeted again. Iran's UN ambassador: US and Israel deliberately struck nearly 10,000 civilian sites, killing 1,300+. NYT: Minab girls' school strike on Day 1 was "likely" a US missile with outdated targeting data — potential war crime. IRGC struck Thai cargo ship Mayuree Naree and Liberian container ship Express Rome in Hormuz. UK ship ONE Majesty hit near UAE. US destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels. IEA released record 400 million barrels. UAE Ruwais refinery halted. Dubai airport struck by two drones (4 wounded). Iranian drone hit US Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center. IRGC: "War will end only when shadow of war removed from our country."
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Day 11 "the most intense day of strikes inside Iran the most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes, intelligence more refined and better than ever." Israel struck Tehran (IRGC Quds Force HQ, nuclear laboratories re-struck from June 2025 12-day war), Isfahan, Shiraz; Tabriz (special units HQ, Basij compound, Ministry of Intelligence building); Sanandaj IRGC Shahramfar base; Khorramabad warehouses; Parchin; Kerman fuel depots; Mehrabad Airport area. US B-2 bombers struck underground missile sites and UAV production facilities. A second Shahid Soleimani-class IRGC warship destroyed at Bandar Abbas port. Pentagon: Iran's ballistic missile launch rate down 90%, drone rate down 80-83% from Day 1 (Gen. Dan Caine). CNN/Times of Israel confirmed Iran began laying ~12 mines in Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels and released combat video. Trump threatened Iran "TWENTY TIMES HARDER" if Hormuz blocked; Iran's Larijani replied: "Be careful not to get eliminated yourself." Iranian drone struck US Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center near Baghdad International Airport. Bahrain: Iranian attack hit residential building in Manama 29-year-old woman killed, 8 wounded. UAE: 26 drones intercepted but 9 fell inside territory; Ruwais industrial city firefighters battled blaze. Saudi Arabia intercepted 6 ballistic missiles targeting Prince Sultan Air Base. Kuwait National Guard shot down 6 drones. Bahrain, Qatar, Oman all intercepted new waves. Pentagon confirmed 8 US KIA and 140 wounded total. Hegseth told 60 Minutes "this is only the beginning" hours after Trump told CBS "the war is very much complete." US Energy Secretary Wright: US Navy escorted first oil tanker through Hormuz. Aramco CEO Nasser: Hormuz closure could have "catastrophic consequences" for global oil markets. France announced plans for defensive Hormuz escort operation. Saudi Aramco activating East-West pipeline to full 7M bpd capacity via Red Sea. 43,000+ Americans evacuated from Middle East.
Mojtaba Khamenei (56), confirmed by the Assembly of Experts on Mar 9 as Iran's 3rd Supreme Leader, launched fresh missile and drone barrages immediately. Oil briefly surged to $119.50/barrel up 27% in one week, the biggest weekly gain since the COVID-19 pandemic before settling around $113. First Saudi civilian deaths: 2 killed (Indian and Bangladeshi nationals), 12 wounded in Al-Kharj residential compound strike 107km SE of Riyadh. US State Dept ordered all non-emergency diplomats and families to leave Saudi Arabia. Bahrain BAPCO declared force majeure Iranian drone struck Sitra Island residential area, wounding 32 civilians including children aged 2, 7 and 8 (4 critical); refinery fire at Maameer. Saudi Shaybah oilfield: 4 drones intercepted over Rub al-Khali. 7th US KIA identified as Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington, 26, Glendale KY, 1st Space Brigade. Kuwait confirmed 2 of its own officers killed. Turkey intercepted an Iranian missile for the 2nd time using NATO air defenses; deployed 6 F-16s to Northern Cyprus. Macron visited Cyprus, declared "when Cyprus is attacked, Europe is attacked"; deployed Charles de Gaulle carrier to Mediterranean. Qatar arrested 300+ people for sharing footage of attacks. IDF struck Dahiyeh in Beirut again. HRW confirmed Israel used white phosphorus in southern Lebanon. Lebanon: 394 dead, 1,130 wounded. Lebanese parliament extended its term by 2 years. Fujairah oil facility fire confirmed overnight.
Israel struck Tehran's Shahran oil refinery and fuel storage for the first time, triggering a massive black smoke plume visible from orbit. Mojtaba Khamenei (56), son of assassinated Ali Khamenei, elected Iran's 3rd Supreme Leader by Assembly of Experts in "decisive vote." IRGC immediately pledged "complete obedience and self-sacrifice." Iran's president Pezeshkian hailed the choice; Trump called it "unacceptable" and warned Mojtaba "won't last long." Israel's IDF said it will target him. Analysts: he is more hardline than his father, closer to IRGC, and seen as more favorable to nuclear weapons. IDF eliminated 3 IRGC Quds Force commanders in strike on Beirut Rawche area hotel. IRGC launched wave 28 "Ya Amir al-Mu'minin" against Tel Aviv, Beersheba, and US Al-Azraq base. Brent crude topped $114/barrel for first time since 2022. Nikkei fell 7%, KOSPI 8%, Hang Seng 3%. US gas rising toward $4/gallon. Bahrain desalination plant struck by Iranian drone, Fujairah oil tanks fire after debris. 7th US soldier died from Mar 1 Saudi Arabia injuries. Russia providing Iran intelligence on US warship/aircraft positions per CNN, WaPo (multiple US officials). Swiss govt declared both sides violated international law. Pope Leo XIV called for end to violence. Pezeshkian apologized to Gulf neighbors and ordered IRGC to halt attacks on them; IRGC defied the order and continued. Iranian Health Ministry: 200 children and 200 women killed (children = 30% of all fatalities). 517,000 displaced in Lebanon.
Israel launched a broad-scale new wave of strikes on Tehran and Isfahan overnight into Saturday, including hits on Mehrabad Airport. At least 1,332 civilians killed in Iran. Iran's IRGC launched its 23rd wave including a combined drone and missile attack on Tel Aviv. Trump posted demanding unconditional surrender, no deal otherwise, and approved a $151M arms sale to Israel. Iran's UN ambassador told the Security Council the bombing of civilian areas constitutes potential war crimes. Thousands gathered for a pro-regime rally in Tehran after Friday prayers. Russia reportedly providing Iran intelligence on US military positions. Operation Epic Fury cost: $3.7B in first 100 hours per CSIS. Brent crude hits $91/barrel, oil up 24-31%. Kuwait cuts oil output after storage full. Maersk suspends all Middle East operations.
Israel claims near-complete air superiority , 2,500 strikes, 80% of Iran's air defenses destroyed. Israel struck 400+ targets in western Iran on Friday. UK PM Starmer grants US use of RAF Fairford , B-1 Lancer arrives. France authorizes US use of French bases. Iran warns Europe it will become a legitimate target if it joins. Italy calls strikes a violation of international law. Spain calls the war an extraordinary mistake. Eight people killed in Lebanon including four of same family in Kfar Tebnit. Drone strikes Erbil Arjaan hotel after US embassy warning. Saudi Arabia intercepts 3 drones near Riyadh and 3 ballistic missiles. Qatar intercepts 9 of 10 Iranian drones. Eight Israeli soldiers wounded by Hezbollah fire. All holy sites in Jerusalem's Old City closed.
A US submarine used a single Mark 48 torpedo to sink the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in the Indian Ocean off Sri Lanka , 87 bodies recovered, 32 survivors rescued by Sri Lanka Navy and Indian Navy assets. IRGC commander warns more intense and widespread attacks coming. Iran struck Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave , drones hit the main airport terminal and fell near a school, injuring 4; Azerbaijani President Aliyev condemned it as a terror act, summoned Iran's diplomat, and ordered the military to prepare retaliatory measures. NATO air defenses in the eastern Mediterranean intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile that entered Turkish airspace. The House voted 212-219 to reject the war powers resolution , joining the Senate in granting Trump unimpeded war authority. Trump told Reuters and Axios he wants a personal role in selecting Iran's next supreme leader and called Mojtaba Khamenei the late leader's son and front-runner unacceptable. Israel issued mass evacuation orders for all of Dahiyeh (Beirut's southern suburbs) and increased strikes across Tehran. US and Israeli forces intensified airstrikes on Iran's border with Iraq to support Kurdish armed groups. IRGC struck Iraqi Kurdistan, targeting Kurdish armed group positions. Abu Dhabi Zayed International Airport resumed limited operations. French aircraft carrier moves toward Mediterranean. Iran's IRGC boasts it has fired 500+ ballistic/naval missiles and 2,000+ drones since Feb 28.
US Embassy Riyadh struck by IRGC drones , CLOSED. US Embassy Kuwait CLOSED. US Consulate Dubai hit by drone. B-2 stealth bombers active against IRGC command nodes. IAEA confirms Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant entrance damaged , no radiological risk. Iran's Assembly of Experts building in Qom bombed by Israel during successor election meeting. 787 confirmed dead in Iran (IRNA/Red Crescent); 165 schoolgirls killed in Minab (mass funeral held). Iran fires cluster munitions at central Israel , IDF calls it war crime. Israel strikes hotel near Beirut, Hezbollah Al-Manar TV HQ; 50+ killed in Lebanon in 2 days. Iran warns France, Germany, UK against joining. Dow Jones -1,000 pts. Oil at multi-year highs. 1.9M+ passengers stranded. US State Dept orders Americans to depart 14+ countries. Trump signals war could last "far longer" than 4 weeks.
Hezbollah launches attacks on northern Israel (Mar 2), saying it is avenging Khamenei and "defending Lebanon." Israel strikes Dahiyeh (Beirut's southern suburbs) and issues evacuation warnings for 24+ Lebanese villages. Qatar's Emiri Air Force shoots down 2 Iranian SU-24 jets , first GCC jets to down Iranian aircraft. QatarEnergy halts all LNG production after Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. Bomb-drone sinks Marshall Islands tanker in Gulf of Oman; 1 mariner killed. 6 US service members now killed in action total (CENTCOM). 555 confirmed killed in Iran. Trump says war will last "4–5 weeks." Dubai airports partially resuming flights Monday evening. Khamenei's wife dies of wounds.
Iran's state TV confirms Khamenei killed; 3-person transitional council formed. 3 US troops killed in Kuwait at Shuaiba port , first American KIAs. Strait of Hormuz declared closed by IRGC. Iran launches its "largest wave yet" of missiles. 9 killed in Beit Shemesh, Israel. Minab school death toll rises to 153 children. Jebel Ali Port (Dubai) struck , fire breaks out. Gaza's Rafah crossing closed "until further notice." GCC emergency meeting convened.
US and Israel launch simultaneous strikes on Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Tabriz, Karaj, Kermanshah. Supreme Leader Khamenei confirmed killed. Iran immediately vows its heaviest retaliation in history. IRGC launches missiles at Israel and all Gulf US military bases simultaneously.
Oman's Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi announced a breakthrough: Iran had agreed to never stockpile enriched uranium and to accept full IAEA verification. However, Iran continued to reject US demands to limit its ballistic missile program. On the same day, the White House confirmed Iran rejected a separate proposal for a civilian nuclear program with US investment in exchange for full dismantlement. Multiple embassies evacuated from Tehran as the US State Department declared Iran a state sponsor of wrongful detention. Strikes launched within 24 hours of the announcement.
Third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva concludes without agreement. Secretary of State Rubio says Iran's missile program is a "big, big problem." Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner told Trump it would be "difficult, if not impossible" to reach a deal. After talks collapsed, Witkoff blamed Iran for trying to "strong-arm" the US team and said Iranian insistence on enrichment hampered a deal, adding that the Iranians boasted about having deceived monitors. Oman mediates but says further talks planned next week. Strikes proceed two days later.
Trump accuses Iran of reviving nuclear weapons efforts in the State of the Union address, calling Iran the "world's number one sponsor of terror" and its ambitions "sinister." He warns the US is "prepared to act if necessary" and says he prefers diplomacy but will not allow Iran to get nuclear weapons. The speech is widely seen as a final public warning before military action. Anonymous US officials tell CNN the military is prepared to strike Iran as early as 21 February , Trump had been privately arguing both for and against action, polling advisers and allies on the best course.
The White House issued a warning that Tehran must make a deal, describing the window as days, not weeks. Trump sent warships, tankers and submarines to the Middle East to be ready for potential strikes as early as 21 February per CBS News sources. A February 18 Axios analysis concluded there were no signs of a breakthrough in negotiations, making war the most likely outcome. Global gold prices surged on war fears.
Trump deploys a second carrier strike group to the Middle East, creating an unprecedented two-carrier deployment. USS Gerald R. Ford joins USS Abraham Lincoln. US officials tell Reuters the US is preparing for weeks-long sustained operations against Iran. 12 F-22 Raptors are deployed to Israel's Ovda Airbase. On 13 February, Trump publicly stated that regime change in Iran would be "the best thing that could happen," the clearest signal yet of the operation's political objectives. A day later, officials confirm planning for broad strikes targeting Iranian state and security infrastructure, not only nuclear facilities.
The United States and Iran held indirect talks in Muscat, Oman, mediated by Oman's Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi. The Iranian delegation was led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while US representatives included Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper. Despite initial reports of direct talks, Araghchi did not meet face to face with any US delegation member. The entire session was mediated by Oman. Secretary of State Rubio said "I'm not sure you can reach a deal with these guys." VP Vance expressed frustration that Supreme Leader Khamenei, who ran the country, did not participate. Iran emphasized that progress depended on consultations back in capitals. A second round was scheduled for Geneva.
The deadliest phase of Iran's anti-government protests occurs. IRGC and Basij forces massacre protesters using live fire, pellet guns, and armed drones. HRANA estimates 7,000 killed; the Iranian government's own figures put the number at 3,117; Trump and two senior Iranian health ministry officials cited approximately 30,000–32,000 deaths. International Centre for Human Rights estimated 43,000. At least 26,541 people were detained per HRANA. The UN's internet blackout surpassed 100+ hours. UN Human Rights Commissioner Volker Turk condemned the killings and called for an end to executions. AP News reported that the government's overwhelming use of violence had caused despair among Iranians and given rise to widespread hopes for an American intervention. Trump cited these killings as a key justification for Operation Epic Fury.
Trump publicly expresses support for anti-government protesters in Iran and promises "help is on the way." Iranian officials warn they are "ready for war." The US begins its largest military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. USS Abraham Lincoln strike group is deployed to the Gulf. Trump uses Truth Social to issue a series of public warnings directed at Iran, marking one of the most visible escalations in US-Iran relations. In the final week of January, Trump dispatches two carrier strike groups to the region.
Nationwide anti-government protests begin in Iran, driven by severe economic crisis, collapse of the rial, and rising prices after years of US sanctions. The protests spread to over 100 cities and become the largest since the Islamic Revolution. Calls for regime change intensify. The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect identifies the Iranian population as being at significant risk of mass atrocity crimes. Several scholars argue the Iranian regime is in a fragile state that could lead to its demise , giving the US and Israel an opening.
After the IAEA found that Iran had enriched enough uranium to produce nine nuclear weapons, Israel launched preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The US joins under the codename Operation Midnight Hammer, striking Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Trump claims the attacks "degraded" Iran's nuclear program. Iranian officials say the program was set back but not destroyed. A ceasefire ends the 12-day war, but Iran continues enrichment activities. In December 2024, IAEA reported enrichment to levels approaching weapons-grade, setting the stage for the 2026 escalation.
Israel initiates a major air campaign against Iranian nuclear and military facilities while US-Iran nuclear talks are still in progress. Iran responds within hours with large-scale missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities. The 12-day war marks the most serious escalation before the February 2026 operation and directly causes Iran to pull out of nuclear negotiations, suspend talks indefinitely, and accelerate its enrichment program. US and Israeli officials use this conflict as a strategic rehearsal for the larger 2026 operation.
Israel and Iran exchange direct strikes for the second time in 2024, following the April 2024 episode triggered by Israel's killing of Quds Force field commanders and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. These tit-for-tat exchanges between sovereign states break the previous proxy-only dynamic of their confrontation and establish a pattern of direct, state-on-state conflict that makes the 2026 full-scale war possible. Iran's diminished deterrence following Nasrallah's death and repeated Israeli strikes on Iranian assets is widely cited as a factor that emboldens the 2026 operation.
📰 Latest War Updates LIVE
Sources: Al Jazeera, Reuters, AP, CNN, ACLED, House of Commons Library, Arab News, NCRI, CENTCOM, UKMTO, Semafor, Washington Post, Amnesty International, Pravda EN · Last updated: Mar 15, 2026
Day 16: US and Israel struck multiple sites across Isfahan province in early hours, killing at least 15 people (Al Jazeera). Residential areas in Shiraz were also attacked. Iran responded with multiple missile barrages at central Israel — sirens blared nationwide. The IRGC stated it launched 10 missiles and several drones against US forces at UAE's Al-Dhafra Air Base. Smoke was seen rising from the direction of a major UAE energy installation on Mar 14; Dubai Creek Harbour tower was struck by an Iranian drone. In Lebanon, Israeli attacks on two towns killed at least 5 people including a child; another strike killed an entire family including two children in Qantara. Hezbollah battled Israeli military advances in southern towns. Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated the operation will continue "without any time limit." Trump (Day 16) claimed Tehran "wants to make a deal" while pressing for a naval coalition to keep Hormuz open. IRGC ballistic missile rate now down ~90%, drone rate down ~80% from Day 1 (CENTCOM/ACLED) — degraded but not eliminated. Iran confirmed the death of Brig.-Gen. Abdullah Jalali Nasab in an Israeli strike. Saudi Arabia intercepted 4 drones over Riyadh metro area. At least 2 people killed and 12 injured in Saudi Arabia since Iranian attacks began (Saudi MoD). Total confirmed dead: Iran 1,444+; 13 US soldiers; 15+ in Israel; 826+ in Lebanon; 19 across Gulf states (Al Jazeera tracker, Mar 15).
New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first public statement via Iranian state TV on Mar 13 — but notably did not appear in person. He warned that attacks on Israel and US military assets will continue unless all bases hosting US forces in the region are closed. US Defense Secretary Hegseth called the statement evidence the leader is "desperate," "scared" and "injured" — later saying he believes Khamenei is "wounded and likely disfigured." The State Department announced a $10 million reward for information on Khamenei and other top Iranian officials, also noting informants could be "eligible for relocation." All 6 US aircrew aboard a US Air Force refuelling aircraft were killed when it crashed in western Iraq on Mar 13 — not caused by hostile fire, but by a collision with another tanker; aircraft lacked ejection systems. A key US Senate committee chairman announced plans to hold the first open oversight hearing of the war; all congressional sessions to date had been classified. US gas prices reached $3.63/gallon — a 22-month high (AAA), with the Hormuz closure driving a global fuel crisis. More than 250 US organisations signed a letter calling on Congress to halt war funding — arguing $11.3bn in the first 6 days diverts funds from domestic needs. Explosions reported near central Tehran during the Al Quds Day rally (Day 14) — Iranian state media reported one woman killed. Israel expanded Beirut operations; an apartment building in Sidon struck (Reuters). US deploying 2,200-strong Marine Expeditionary Unit from Okinawa; 10,000 Merops interceptor drones already deployed across the region.
The UN Security Council passed a resolution 13-0 (Russia and China abstaining) demanding Iran immediately halt attacks on Gulf states, reaffirm freedom of navigation, and warning against any Hormuz closure. Hours after the vote, fighting widened again. Iranian President Pezeshkian outlined 3 conditions for ending the war: (1) recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, (2) payment of reparations, (3) firm international guarantees against future aggression. But the IRGC publicly defied civilian leadership orders — Arab News analysis said the gap between Iran's presidency and military establishment "has rarely been so publicly laid bare." Saudi FM: "The Iranians have not applied this on the ground, before or after the president's speech." CENTCOM: approximately 6,000 targets struck in Iran; more than 90 Iranian vessels including 30+ mine-laying ships damaged or destroyed. Iran's UN ambassador: at least 1,348 civilians killed and 17,000+ injured. UNHCR: 3.2 million displaced inside Iran. Bahrain's Ministry of Interior arrested 4 Bahraini citizens on charges of spying for Iran's IRGC. Qatar Airways resumed 29 flights after total grounding. Senior Iranian adviser Yahya Rahim Safavi called Trump "the most corrupt and stupid American president" and "Satan himself" on state TV. Oman drone attack damaged fuel tanks at Salalah port. Qatar strongly rejected claims it intentionally paused LNG — confirmed it was forced by an Iranian drone attack. B-2 bombers used 30,000-pound GBU-57 bunker-busters on Talaghan-2 nuclear research facility at Parchin (satellite imagery/NCRI).
IRGC Wave 37 (Day 12) IRGC declared it was Iran's "most intense and heaviest operation" since war began (AFP): a joint operation with Hezbollah delivering 5 hours of sustained fire striking 50+ targets across Israel using super-heavy Khoramshahr ballistic missiles, targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, West Jerusalem, Erbil, and Manama. Israel launched a "massive wave" of strikes overnight on a residential district of central Tehran 8+ districts struck; the Red Crescent confirmed a residential building was hit and rescue teams were digging through rubble. Mehrabad Airport also targeted again. Iran's UN ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani told the Security Council: US and Israel have deliberately bombed nearly 10,000 civilian sites killing 1,300+. NYT (Mar 11): US preliminary investigation finds the Minab girls' school strike on Day 1 was "likely" caused by a US missile with outdated targeting data UN experts call it a potential war crime. IRGC hit Thai cargo ship Mayuree Naree (3 crew missing, 20 rescued, fire extinguished) and Liberian container ship Express Rome in the Strait of Hormuz. UK ship ONE Majesty hit near UAE's Ra's al-Khaymah. US destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels. IEA agreed to release record 400 million barrels of crude oil. UAE Ruwais refinery halted. Dubai airport struck by two drones 4 foreign nationals wounded. Iranian drone hit US Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center near Baghdad airport. Qatar issued midday "elevated" threat alert, told residents "remain indoors." Bahrain sounded air raid sirens with 4 loud booms (Reuters). Kuwait National Guard shot down 8 drones. Saudi forces intercepted 6 Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Prince Sultan Air Base. IRGC threatens to target "economic centres and banks" linked to US and Israel. Iran told UN it will respond to residential area attacks. Macron chairs G7 emergency video call. Italy's Meloni: strikes "outside realm of international law." Spain: withdrawing ambassador from Israel. Mojtaba Khamenei confirmed to have fractured foot + minor injuries (CNN source). IRGC: "War will end only when shadow of war removed from our country."
Defense Secretary Hegseth declared Day 11 (Mar 10) the "most intense day of strikes inside Iran most fighters, most bombers, most strikes, most refined intelligence." Israel struck Tehran (IRGC Quds Force HQ, nuclear labs re-struck), Isfahan, Shiraz, Tabriz (special units HQ, Basij compound, Ministry of Intelligence), Sanandaj, Khorramabad, Parchin, Kerman (fuel depots), and Mehrabad Airport area. US B-2 bombers struck underground missile sites and UAV facilities. A second Shahid Soleimani-class IRGC warship was destroyed at Bandar Abbas port. Pentagon: Iran's ballistic missile launches down 90% and drone attacks down 80-83% since Day 1 (Gen. Caine). CNN confirmed Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz (two intelligence sources). US destroys 16 mine-laying vessels. Iran's IRGC launched its "most intense and heaviest operation" since the war's start, firing dozens of missiles across the Gulf Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE all intercepting waves. In Bahrain, a residential building in Manama was struck, killing a 29-year-old woman and wounding 8 (PBS). UAE reported 9 drones fell inside UAE territory despite intercepting 26. Ruwais industrial city struck firefighters battled blaze; no injuries reported. Iranian drone hit US Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center near Baghdad airport (CNN/WaPo two sources). Saudi Arabia intercepted 6 ballistic missiles targeting Prince Sultan Air Base. Kuwait National Guard shot down 6 drones. Pentagon confirmed 8 US soldiers KIA total and 140 wounded 108 returned to duty, 8 severely injured. Trump threatened Iran "TWENTY TIMES HARDER" if Hormuz blocked; Iran's Larijani replied: "Be careful not to get eliminated yourself." Hegseth said on 60 Minutes: "This is only the beginning." Trump separately told CBS: "I think the war is very much complete" conflicting signals. US Energy Secretary Wright: US Navy escorted oil tanker through Hormuz (first since war began). Iran's FM Araghchi says Iran prepared for potential US ground invasion. Australia granted humanitarian visas to 5 members of Iran women's soccer team who refused to sing national anthem.
Mojtaba Khamenei (56), son of the slain Supreme Leader and a close IRGC ally, was formally confirmed by the Assembly of Experts on Mar 9. He launched new missile and drone barrages at Israel and Gulf states immediately. Oil surged briefly to $119.50/barrel up 27% in one week, the biggest weekly gain since the COVID-19 pandemic before settling around $113. FIRST SAUDI CIVILIAN DEATHS: 2 killed (Indian and Bangladeshi nationals), 12 wounded in Al-Kharj residential compound strike 107km SE of Riyadh. US State Dept ordered all non-emergency diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia. BAHRAIN BAPCO declared force majeure Iranian drone struck Sitra Island residential area, wounding 32 civilians including children aged 2, 7 and 8, with 4 critical; refinery fire at Maameer. Saudi Shaybah oilfield targeted 4 drones intercepted over Rub al-Khali. 7th US KIA identified as Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington, 26, Glendale KY, 1st Space Brigade. Kuwait confirmed 2 of its own officers killed. Turkey intercepted an Iranian missile for the 2nd time using NATO air defenses also deployed 6 F-16s to Northern Cyprus. Macron visited Cyprus and declared "when Cyprus is attacked, Europe is attacked" deployed Charles de Gaulle carrier and frigate to Mediterranean. Qatar arrested 300+ people for sharing footage of attacks. Israeli strikes hit Dahiyeh in Beirut again Ghobeiry municipality struck on camera. HRW confirmed Israel used white phosphorus in southern Lebanon. Lebanon: 394 dead, 1,130 wounded. Lebanese parliament extended its term by 2 years. Fujairah oil facility fire confirmed overnight.
Trump held his first press conference since the war started from Trump National Doral Miami, calling the war "pretty much complete" and saying Iran has "no navy, no air force, their missiles are down to a scatter." He said the gas price spike is a "very small price to pay" to "get rid of a major, major cancer on the face of the earth." Trump called the war "a short excursion into something that should have been done for 47 years." Separately, a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found a majority of Americans oppose US military action in Iran and disapprove of Trump's handling. Secretary of State Rubio told reporters at the State Department the goal is to eliminate Iran's entire ballistic missile stockpile, production facilities, and launch capability "every single day this regime has less missiles, has less launchers." Bellingcat independently verified the geographical location of a video showing what appears to be a US cruise missile striking a compound next to the girls' school in Minab "appears to contradict" Trump's claim Iran was responsible. A US National Intelligence Council report found a large-scale assault is "unlikely to topple" Iran's government. Iran's FM Araghchi said Iran is prepared for a possible US ground invasion. The US military lost 2 more MQ-9 Reaper drones, bringing the total lost to 11.
Iran's Assembly of Experts formally elected Mojtaba Khamenei (56) as the 3rd Supreme Leader on Mar 8 in a "decisive vote." The IRGC immediately pledged "complete obedience and self-sacrifice." His election consolidates hardline IRGC control. Analysts describe him as more hardline than his father, injured and living in hiding "with a bull's eye on his back." Trump called the pick "unacceptable" and said he won't last long without US approval. Israel warned it would target him. Brent crude topped $114/barrel (first above $100 since 2022), Asian markets crashed (Nikkei -7%, KOSPI -8%), and US gas prices are rising toward a $4 national average. Israel struck Tehran's Shahran oil refinery and fuel storage for the first time, sparking massive fires visible from orbit. A 7th US soldier died from injuries sustained in a Mar 1 Iranian strike in Saudi Arabia. IDF struck Beirut's Rawche hotel, eliminating 3 IRGC Quds Force commanders. Bahrain's desalination plant was damaged by an Iranian drone. IRGC launched wave 28 of "Operation True Promise 4" (PressTV framing) targeting Tel Aviv, Beersheba, and Al-Azraq base. Russia confirmed to be sharing intelligence on US warship and aircraft positions with Iran per CNN and Washington Post. Swiss govt declared US-Israel attacks a violation of international law. Pope Leo XIV called for end to violence. Iran's President Pezeshkian apologized to Gulf neighbors and ordered IRGC to halt attacks on them; IRGC defied the order and continued striking, revealing a dangerous civil-military command split.
According to PressTV and official IRGC statements, Operation True Promise 4 has now entered its 28th wave, launched under the code "Ya Amir al-Mu'minin." Iran frames this as a legitimate retaliatory operation against "unprovoked US-Zionist aggression" targeting the Islamic Republic. IRGC spokesman Brig. Gen. Naeini claims: 4 US THAAD radar systems destroyed, the "Desert Eye" radar at Al-Udeid (valued at $1B) neutralized, USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier hit with 4 ballistic missiles, US 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain struck repeatedly, 17 allied vessels hit across the region, and US base at Al-Adairi in Kuwait severely damaged in a joint drone-ballistic missile operation. The IRGC also claims to have hit Warner Brothers complex area near US base in Marina. IRGC says most missiles used so far are vintage 2012-2014 vintage, and that "new advanced long-range missiles" will be deployed soon. Supplies sufficient for 6 months of sustained operations. Hezbollah in Lebanon and "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" described as part of the "Resistance Axis" fighting alongside Iran. IRGC: "We are lying in wait for American forces with precision and planning."
Russia is providing Iran with targeting intelligence including locations and movements of US warships and aircraft in the Middle East, per CNN and Washington Post citing multiple US officials (Mar 6 reports). This marks the first confirmed indication that Moscow is directly assisting Iran's war effort. TIME magazine analysis: Russia has emerged as an "early winner" of the Iran war in the short term. Key Russian benefits: (1) Energy windfall , global demand for Russian oil surged as Iranian and Gulf oil is disrupted; (2) US strategic distraction , American military attention and ammunition shifted away from Ukraine; (3) Ukraine peace talks suspended indefinitely , Zelensky confirmed US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral meeting postponed due to Iran war; (4) IAEA political gain , Russia (with US and China) blocked IAEA resolution condemning attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. ISW assessment: Russia gained 46 sq mi in Feb-Mar 2026 period. Russian state media (Sputnik/Pravda) frames conflict as "US war of choice" and highlights "dwindling US ammunition stocks." Sputnik reports US worried about weapons depletion rate in Iran war. Russia has also increased domestic energy production to fill the gap left by Iranian and Gulf oil disruption.
Israel's military said early Saturday it had started a broad-scale new wave of strikes on targets in Tehran. Continuous attacks have been occurring since midnight including strikes on Mehrabad Airport, one of Tehran's two main airports. Attacks are also hitting other cities including Isfahan. The death toll in Iran has risen to at least 1,332. Iran launched a combined drone and missile attack on Tel Aviv overnight , CNN teams on the ground saw what appeared to be a cluster warhead over central Israel. Trump posted on Truth Social there can be no deal with Iran "except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER." He told CNN's Dana Bash he is not worried whether Iran becomes a democratic state as long as the new leader treats the US and Israel well. Iran's UN ambassador Amir-Saeid Iravani told the UN Security Council Friday that the US and Israel are bombing civilian areas, stating the strikes constitute potential war crimes. A pro-regime rally of thousands gathered in Tehran after Friday prayers to decry the bombing campaign.
The Israeli military claims to have achieved near-complete air superiority , 2,500 strikes conducted, 80% of Iran's air defense systems destroyed. Israel struck 400+ targets in western Iran on Friday alone, destroying ballistic missile launchers and drone storage facilities. A US B-1 Lancer arrived at RAF Fairford after UK PM Keir Starmer granted permission for defensive US action, following criticism from Trump and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch over delays. France and Spain took opposite positions , France authorized US military base use while Spain called the war an extraordinary mistake. Russia is reportedly providing Iran with intelligence on US military positions per unnamed US officials , the Kremlin confirmed Iran war has caused a significant increase in demand for Russian energy. Brent crude surged to $91/barrel (first time since October 2023). US oil prices up 31%. Maersk became the second shipping company to suspend all Middle East operations. Kuwait began cutting oil production after storage capacity was exhausted. CSIS estimated Operation Epic Fury cost $3.7B in its first 100 hours, with most of that spending not budgeted for. A drone struck the Erbil Arjaan hotel in Iraqi Kurdistan after the US embassy warned of attacks targeting hotels used by foreigners.
A US Navy submarine fired a single Mark 48 torpedo sinking the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka , the first US submarine kill since WWII and the first ship sunk by a sub in active combat since the Falklands War. Sri Lanka Navy recovered 87 bodies and rescued 32 survivors. Iranian FM Araghchi warned the US would "bitterly regret" the sinking. The war widened further as Iran struck Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave: drones hit the main airport terminal and landed near a school, injuring 4. Azerbaijani President Aliyev condemned it as a "terror act against Azerbaijan," summoned Iran's diplomat, and ordered the military to prepare retaliatory measures. NATO air defenses in eastern Mediterranean intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile that entered Turkish airspace. The House voted 212-219 against a war powers measure (joining the Senate 47-53 from Wednesday) , Trump now has unimpeded authority. Trump told Reuters and Axios he demands a personal say in selecting Iran's next supreme leader, calling Mojtaba Khamenei "unacceptable." IRGC commanders warned "more intense and widespread" attacks are coming. France authorized US forces use of French military bases (BFMTV).
Israeli forces issued mass evacuation orders Thursday for entire neighborhoods in Beirut's southern suburbs, including the densely populated Dahiyeh , a Hezbollah stronghold , and struck targets in both Beirut and across Tehran. US and Israeli aircraft intensified strikes along Iran's border with Iraq, targeting IRGC positions and reportedly aiming to support a Kurdish advance. Iran's IRGC retaliated with strikes on Iraqi Kurdistan, targeting what it called "Kurdish armed group positions." A drone hit a building near Erbil airport. Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga forces in northern Iraq remain on "standby" for a potential cross-border operation. Ali Larijani, Iran's top national security official, warned Kurdish separatists that Iran's armed forces are "fully in control of the situation" and will "show no leniency." Trump called Kurdish leaders Masoud Barzani and Bafel Talabani on March 4; they expressed reservations about committing Peshmerga to any ground invasion, citing risk of massive Iranian retaliation against Kurdish areas in Iraq.
The UN's International Maritime Organization confirmed 20,000 seafarers and 15,000 cruise ship passengers are stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the war, urging all shipping companies to exercise maximum caution and avoid the region. Iran's death toll from five days of US-Israeli strikes has reached 1,045 killed and over 6,000 wounded, according to Iranian state media. Abu Dhabi's Zayed International Airport resumed limited flight operations Thursday , one of the first signs of aviation recovery across the Gulf. France dispatched its aircraft carrier toward the Mediterranean. Americans stranded in Dubai described frustration at slow US government evacuation response: twins Shivali and Sheenali Patel told NBC News the US response has been "very frustrating" , "They keep saying get out ASAP, but how can we get out if no one's helping."
Al Jazeera's live blog (Mar 4) reports that US and Israeli bombardment of Iran and Lebanon continues into a fourth night. A drone struck Washington's embassy in Dubai and Iran hit Fujairah port. Israel bombed the Assembly of Experts building in Qom (Iran's electoral body for selecting a new supreme leader) while a meeting was in session, and struck a hotel near Beirut. The death toll in Iran has now surpassed 800 combined in both countries. IRGC launched its 11th wave of Operation True Promise 4, targeting energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and ports in Oman and the UAE.
IRNA and the Iranian Red Crescent reported 787 confirmed deaths across Iran from US-Israeli strikes, with attacks hitting 153 cities and over 500 locations in more than 1,000 separate strikes. Al Jazeera reported that a mass funeral was held in Minab on Mar 3 for 165 schoolgirls and staff killed in the Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school strike. Thousands filled a public square for the ceremony. Iran's FM Araghchi wrote on X: "These are graves being dug for more than 160 innocent young girls... Their bodies were torn to shreds." He accused the US and Israel of deliberate war crimes. Iranian interim leadership issued defiant statements vowing to continue resistance.
The US Embassy in Riyadh was hit by two IRGC drones on Mar 3 , the IRGC posted on Telegram that the Riyadh attack "is a move in this direction" of destroying "American political centers." The US Embassy in Kuwait also closed "until further notice." A US tanker, the Stena Imperative, was struck by an Iranian drone in the Gulf. The US Embassy issued an imminent attack warning for Dhahran, Saudi Arabia , home to Saudi Aramco's HQ and major oil infrastructure. A CIA station in Saudi Arabia was also reportedly targeted. Trump ordered the US Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance for Gulf shipping, and said the US Navy will escort tankers if necessary.
The IAEA confirmed via satellite imagery that Iran's Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant entrance buildings sustained fresh damage from strikes on Mar 1–2. The agency stated no radiological consequences are expected and no additional impact was detected at the fuel enrichment plant itself. Russia had requested an emergency IAEA Board of Governors meeting on Mar 2. The IAEA's statement marks a significant confirmation that Iran's primary uranium enrichment facility , a central stated objective of the US-Israeli operation , has been struck.
The IDF accused Iran of war crimes after missiles containing cluster sub-munitions targeted civilians in central Israel on Mar 3. A residential building was damaged; 12 people were treated for injuries. Israel struck the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Manar TV headquarters in Beirut's Haret Hreik after issuing evacuation warnings, plus a hotel near Beirut. At least 50 people have been killed and 335 wounded in Lebanon in the past 48 hours per Lebanon's Health Ministry. An airstrike in Aramoun killed 6 and wounded 8 in the early hours of Mar 4. Israel's military chief vowed complete disarmament of Hezbollah. IDF ordered 50 more Lebanese villages to evacuate.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman warned European countries against joining the ongoing war with Israel and the US, after France, Germany, and Britain said they could take "defensive action" to destroy Iran's missile-launching capabilities. The warning came as Germany, France, and the UK began coordinating to potentially neutralize Iranian missile sites. Iran's FM Araghchi stressed that Iran's fight is not against its Gulf neighbours but against "US military assets." He told Al Jazeera earlier that Iran was acting in self-defence. The EU meanwhile launched evacuation flights for European nationals stranded in the region , France prepared two flights Mar 3 evening; Czech Republic evacuated nationals from the Gulf on Mar 3.
Trump contradicted Secretary of State Rubio's justification for the war. Rubio said the US acted pre-emptively because Israel was going to strike Khamenei and Iran would automatically retaliate against US forces. Trump told CNN's Jake Tapper he ordered the strikes because he believed Iran was about to strike first independently. Trump added the US is "a little ahead of schedule" but signalled the war could last "far longer" than the originally projected 4–5 weeks. Rubio told Capitol Hill reporters "the hardest hits are yet to come" and that "the two most powerful air forces in the world" would continue dismantling the Iranian regime. Congress began debating war powers resolutions to rein in Trump.
Iran launched an unprecedented simultaneous strike against US military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, while also firing ballistic missiles at northern and central Israel. Qatar's air defense shot down multiple incoming missiles. Debris fell over Abu Dhabi's St. Regis district; one person killed in UAE. Sirens sounded across Tel Aviv and Haifa. Iran's IRGC said it was targeting 14 US military installations.
US and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes on multiple Iranian cities. Explosions reported in Tehran's Pasteur district (near Khamenei compound), University Street, Jomhouri area near IRGC headquarters, Seyyed Khandan in northern Tehran, plus Qom, Isfahan, Tabriz, Karaj, Kermanshah, and Lorestan province. Trump described it as a "massive and ongoing" operation aimed at eliminating Iran's nuclear and missile programs and removing the regime. He called on IRGC members to lay down arms.
Iranian state media reported that one US-Israeli strike killed over 100 students at a girls' elementary school in Minab, in southern Iran. The report drew swift international condemnation from China, France, and the UN, which warned of a "humanitarian catastrophe." Images showed severe damage to the school compound.
Russia requested an emergency IAEA Board of Governors session following US-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards. France called for an emergency UN Security Council session. The EU warned of a "humanitarian, economic and possibly radiological catastrophe." UK Prime Minister Starmer chaired an emergency committee meeting.
Iran, Iraq, Israel, and Lebanon closed their airspace. FlydDubai cancelled flights to Tehran, Tel Aviv, and Mashhad. Air Arabia cancelled all flights to Iran, Iraq, and affected areas. Etihad and IndiGo suspended Abu Dhabi and Dubai routes to affected zones. Passengers were stranded at Beirut's Rafik Hariri Airport. Airlines including IndiGo offered full refunds and free rebooking through March 7, 2026.
Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil passes. Energy markets reacted sharply, with oil prices reaching six-month highs and analysts warning of prices surpassing $100 per barrel. Market watchers noted this conflict carries heavier potential economic consequences than recent geopolitical shocks, including tariff escalations.
Hezbollah issued a statement condemning US-Israeli attacks on Iran and calling for "resistance," but stopped short of announcing direct military participation. Lebanon's government explicitly stated it does not want Hezbollah to represent Lebanese interests militarily. Lebanon has been working to disarm Hezbollah in the south since late 2025. CFR analysts say whether Hezbollah heeds Iran's call will be the defining variable to watch in the coming hours and days.